As Skopje hosts a Ministerial Conference on demographic changes, CRPM contributes to the discussion with new evidence from the research paper “Historical and Prospective Dimensions of Aging in the Western Balkans.” The paper, prepared by CRPM researchers and published as an French Development Agency’s (AFD) Research Paper, examines demographic transition, ageing and socio-economic transformation in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia. It addresses a key policy gap in the region: the need to connect low fertility, out-migration and population ageing with fiscal sustainability, social protection, labour markets, care systems and development planning.
The message of the paper is clear: demographic change in the Western Balkans is not a distant future scenario. It is already reshaping societies, economies and public finances. The region is experiencing population decline driven by low fertility, ageing and emigration. Since 2021, the countries of the Western Balkans have recorded more deaths than births, while continued out-migration of young and working-age people further reduces the labour force and accelerates ageing.
For N. Macedonia and the wider region, this has direct implications for policy. A smaller working-age population affects productivity, economic growth and the financing of social systems. An ageing population increases pressure on health care, long-term care and pension systems. Rural and smaller municipalities are particularly exposed, as depopulation weakens local tax bases, reduces service provision and reinforces migration toward larger cities or abroad.
The paper also underlines that demographic policy cannot be reduced to measures encouraging childbirth. Low fertility is linked to wider social and economic conditions: insecurity in the labour market, housing challenges, delayed family formation, migration opportunities, gender inequalities and insufficient support for care. Therefore, effective responses must be integrated across employment, education, housing, health, social protection, local development and gender equality policies.
A particularly important finding is the gender dimension of demographic resilience. The Western Balkans continue to have lower female labour market participation than the EU average, while women carry a disproportionate share of unpaid care and household work. This limits women’s economic independence and reduces the region’s available labour potential. Any serious demographic strategy must therefore invest in care services, active labour market policies, work-life balance measures and gender-responsive budgeting.
CRPM’s contribution to the Ministerial Conference is a call for evidence-based, forward-looking policy. Ageing should not be framed only as a burden. Longer life expectancy is also a social achievement. The real challenge is whether institutions can adapt quickly enough: by building sustainable pension systems, accessible long-term care, healthier ageing, more inclusive labour markets, and local development models that respond to demographic realities.
Demographic change is a governance issue. It requires better data, more accurate population projections, stronger coordination across ministries and municipalities, and fiscal planning that anticipates future needs. For countries on the path toward EU accession, demographic resilience must become part of the reform agenda: not only as a social policy concern, but as a foundation for economic convergence, social cohesion and sustainable development.
CRPM will continue to support public debate with research that connects demographic trends to policy choices. The future of the Western Balkans will depend not only on how many people live in the region, but on whether institutions can create conditions for people to live, work, care and age with dignity.
