By Goran Miladinov
The Western Balkans represents the most prominent depopulation zone in Europe with low birth rates and with higher emigration than immigration. Of particular concern is that four Western Balkan countries are among the top 20 countries in the world with the largest population decline, as noted by Ármás, (2023), who considered current trends and estimated that between 2020 and 2050 the population in Serbia will decrease by 19%, in Bosnia and Herzegovina by 18.2%, in Albania by 16%, and in N. Macedonia by 11%. Among the 20 countries, only Japan (16.3%) and Cuba (10.3%) are not from Southern, Southeastern or Eastern Europe. The Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe region tops the list not only due to the decline in birth rates but also due to the high level of migration that has traditionally been a characteristic of the countries of this region.
Serbia is one of the first countries in the Western Balkans region to experience a shrinking and aging population. According to World Bank data, the population of the Western Balkans has been steadily decreasing from 1990 to 2021. Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina were the Western Balkan countries hardest hit by this population decline, resulting in 25 and 30 percent population losses, respectively. The extreme population decline in Albania is particularly worrying, as the country was not affected by military conflicts, although large waves of emigration began to leave impoverished and oppressive Albania as borders opened after the fall of socialism in the early 1990s. The rapid population decline is partly due to falling fertility rates that were in line with trends in Western Europe. The percentages may vary by country, but the trend of population decline is common for all Western Balkan countries.
Low fertility rates highlight the progress of natural depopulation in the region and the very low sub-replacement rate. All Western Balkans countries are far below the threshold of 2.1 children per woman which is necessary for demographic renewal, thus on average, the fertility rate in the region is only 1.5, a level similar to the average of the EU but lower than that in a few Central and Eastern European countries. However, the fertility rate in 2023 was below 1.37 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 1.47 in N. Macedonia, 1.55 in Albania, 1.42 in Serbia and 1.74 in Montenegro.
The situation has not improved significantly in recent years. The fertility rates in 2021 for all countries of Western Balkans are worrying, particularly for Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose TFRs are below 1.3; to be specific, in 2021, Bosnia and Herzegovina had the lowest fertility rate in the world at 1.26.
Understanding mortality is relevant to policymakers to suggest and design solutions for sustainable state pension reforms and budget transfers, or to address differences between socio economic groups. According to the UN, since the 1990s life expectancy at birth has risen notably in the Western Balkan region, e.g. reaching 79.6 years in Albania, 77.9 years in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 77.4 years in N. Macedonia, 77.1 in Montenegro, and 76.8 in Serbia in 2023, and compared to the levels in 1990; 73.1; 72.3, 71.2, 73.9, and 72.2 years, respectively, there are gains in life expectancy from 6.5; 5.6; 6.2, 3.2, and 4.6 years for the period 1990-2023, respectively.
The countries of the Western Balkans share this trend of population decline with the rest of Europe. In addition to declining birth rates, the region of Western Balkans suffers from emigration generated by war conflict and economic hardship. The natural balance of the Western Balkans is similar to the average of the EU. These two regions differ in terms of net migration, i.e. the difference between the number of emigrants and the number of immigrants. In many EU countries, net migration fails to balance the larger number of deaths than births, but in all countries of the Western Balkans, net migration is significantly negative.
However, one of the major issues when speaking about emigration from the Western Balkans is the lack of a well-organized data-gathering system, which results in the absence of accurate and updated data on emigration. Various studies and data sources show that almost all Western Balkan countries are experiencing extensive emigration abroad, which calls into question the relevance of available data as well as the complete registration of people emigrating from Western Balkan countries. Migration data have been underestimated due to non-comparable definitions of the resident population according to the different censuses across the Western Balkan region, and minorities have been wrongly estimated too due to calls for boycott at the moment of the census. In some cases, countries tend to hide or modify the official data, while in other cases, such as N. Macedonia, the country simply did not conduct a census for almost two decades. In addition, Western Balkan countries do not possess official register for population.
As a result of the emigration of a large proportion of children, young working-age population and female population of fertile age from the Western Balkans to foreign countries, migrations have a significant negative impact on population growth, natural population increase and population aging, as well as expected important social, economic, and political consequences. During the last three decades, the Western Balkan countries experienced a phenomenon of large emigration, thus, based on estimation from UNDESA data, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania are the countries with the greatest migrants abroad, 49% and 44%, respectively, of their total population, followed by N. Macedonia and Montenegro, 34% and 21%, respectively, while Serbia is the country with the lowest number, 15% of the total population. However, it is a region that is becoming poorer and where its younger generation and labor force is moving abroad. High levels of political instability and corruption, employment prospects in terms of better salaries and working conditions, but also the yearnings to achieve a higher standard of living are push-force factors for labor migration, leading to the depopulation trend in the Western Balkans. This is especially applicable to young people who face hardship from poverty, unemployment, and social exclusion.
To this end, CRPM is undertaking a background analysis of demographic dynamics in the Western Balkans, with a particular focus on Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia. Our team will collect primary data and conduct economic modeling to assess how shifting demographic trends will impact the sustainability of financial, healthcare, and social protection systems. Based on this evidence, we will deliver timely and actionable policy advice.
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